October 2024 started as a very active month with Hurricane Milton impacting Florida. There was the first significant snow (3-12+ inches) of the season for several areas of the higher peaks across the East Coast from North Carolina to Maine. The latter half of October turned warm and dry across the East, which will continue into November.

At the start of November, we will see above-normal temperatures and dry conditions continue through much of the East as a strong high-pressure system remains semi-stationary. There is a 50-60% chance of above-normal temperatures this November. Precipitation has equal chances of above and below-normal probability, except for a narrow area along the northeast coast with 30-40% of below-normal precipitation. Read on to learn more about the October weather and the November forecast.

October 2024 Review:

As the old saying goes, October started like a lion and ended like a lamb. We saw a very active first 2 weeks of October with Hurricane Milton, a category 3 hurricane, impacting Florida on October 9. This hurricane brought high storm surges, strong winds, tornadoes, and flooding across Florida. Fortunately, the storm moved through quickly and did not bring significant impacts to other states.

October also saw the first significant snow of the year from North Carolina to Maine with several inches of snow and even over a foot of snow reported in Vermont. This early-season snow allowed a few folks to get the first turns of the season. 

Temperatures during October were mostly above-normal, particularly in the northern Northeast, with late-season heat waves. A couple of areas along the Atlantic coast and in the Southeast saw normal to below-normal temperatures.

All of the East saw below-normal precipitation in October due to a strong high-pressure and associated upper-level ridge that remained dominant in the Eastern US. This ridge kept a majority of storms and the cold air to the north in Canada. The below-normal precipitation even allowed a couple of wildfires to spark through the Northeast!

November 2024 Outlook:

The outlook for November shows a 50-60% chance of above-normal temperatures. The upper-level ridge and high-pressure will remain semi-stationary and cause the storm track and cold to continue to stay in Canada. There will be times when the jet stream will dip with cooler and wetter weather, but these are expected to be brief periods. 

Precipitation has equal chances of above and below-normal probability, except for a narrow area along the northeast coast with 30-40% of below-normal precipitation. These areas along the coast are closest to the center of the high-pressure system, which explains the increased chance of below-normal precipitation.

 

Winter 2024-2025 Preview:

The Mid-Atlantic 2024-2025 Winter Preview has been published and New England Daily Snow's have started so please check those out! We will see a weak La Niña this winter, which has a slight favorability for above-normal snowfall and below-normal temperatures. These weak La Niña winters can also bring strong variability so it is difficult to have confidence in an above-normal, normal, or below-normal snowfall this winter...

Here is also a look at the NOAA 2024-2025 Winter Preview.

Tropical Outlook:

The tropics are still active and as of November 5, tropical storm Rafael is located to the west of Jamaica and is expected to strengthen into a category 1 or 2 hurricane over the coming days. Rafael will impact Cuba and continue to travel northwest into the Gulf of Mexico. Despite a favorable storm track with favorable ocean temperatures, this late in the tropical season does not pose well for tropical strengthening.

Due to unfavorable atmospheric conditions, Rafael is expected to weaken into a tropical storm by Sunday, November 10. There is still uncertainty about whether Rafael will impact the Louisiana coast or weaken and dissipate in the Gulf of Mexico. Stay tuned to the National Hurricane Center for any forecast updates on Rafael.

Fire and Smoke Outlook:

We saw increased wildfire activity in October due to dry and warm weather. With a similar forecast in November, we will continue to see increased chances of wildfires. Be careful out there with fires and any ignition sources. We do not often see these conditions across such a large area in the East!

Below is a look at the wildfire potential across the US in November 2024.

Happy November and hopefully we will see more snow fly soon. I will have the next monthly review at the start of December.

Zach Butler